A Battle Of Tactics, Another Of Romantics
Source: Goal.com
We are at the business end of the Uefa Champions League season, and Goal.com sets the scene ahead of the first legs of what promise to be two absorbing semi-final ties.
A Contrast Of Philosophies
After what has been yet another dramatic Champions League season, we are down to the final four. Barcelona, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United have set up two tantalising ties - ties which could not be more different from each other.
At one end we have the Blues and the Reds offering another one of their gripping tactical masterpieces, while at the other there is a clash that promises to showcase attacking football at it's zenith.
On the one hand, you will have Essien doing his best to keep Gerrard on a short leash, and Mascherano ensuring that Lampard does not burst through the middle of Liverpool's back line. In short, both teams will focus first on canceling each other out first, resulting in an absorbing game of cat and mouse. A battle of tactics, a battle of nerves; few would be surprised then, if I said a solitary goal over two legs will decide this one.
On the other hand, we will have a game characterized by Ronaldo and Messi running at back-pedaling defenders as if there were no tomorrow. Samuel Eto'o and Wayne Rooney will represent the sheer determination to score, with Andrés Iniesta and Anderson offering youthful exuberance in the middle of the pitch.
The Journey Thus Far
It has been an interesting journey that has led us here. Olympiakos got the better of Lazio and Werder Bremen to qualify for the knock-out stages, and Rosenborg almost made it too, only to be denied by Schalke at the very death. Lyon and Rangers had a battle royale on the final day, while Fenerbahçe held their nerves to pip PSV - deservedly so, it has to be said.
We saw Refa Benitez's former team Valencia crash out in unspectacular fashion, and his current team also threatened to follow suit, but recovered just in time to assert their European pedigree.
Then, we had three historic ties.
An ebullient Arsenal pipped Milan against the odds in what many hailed as the passing of the baton, only to be usurped as Roma produced an even bigger upset by beating Real Madrid home and away.
The bulk of the drama, though, came in the third of the classics, as Inter had a man sent off in each leg against Liverpool and thus went crashing out of the competition. Inter fans will cry foul for years to come, while the Reds will insist that the Nerazzurri got just what they deserved. The jury will be out for a few decades, one fears, or at the very least until they meet again!
Arsenal and Roma fell by the wayside at the next stage, yet not before leaving behind a few 'ifs' and 'buts'. The Giallorossi will wonder what could have happened had Daniele De Rossi tucked away that fortuitous spot-kick at Old Trafford, while the Gunners will complain about those two penalty decisions that went against them, one in each leg. Once again, the debate will rage on for some time to come.
In the midst of all this, Barcelona and Chelsea had sneaked into the semi-finals relatively unchallenged. The Blues dismissed Olympiacos and Fenerbahçe comfortably despite enduring tricky away legs, while the Blaugrana chose attack as the best form of defence, picking up away wins and then bringing it home without much ado.
And Then There Were Four!
There is always drama and controversy, and we will never know what could have happened had the ties been drawn out differently. But it would only be right to say that the four strongest teams have made it to the final four – and they remain impossible to separate.
Barcelona and Manchester United are both unbeaten, with six wins and two draws each from their eight games thus far. Perhaps goal difference can separate them, but what do you do when each side is +13 for the tournament? Well, you could look at who has scored more goals. Surprise, surprise, both have hit the back of the net 18 times, conceding just five! Take your pick.
Then you have Chelsea and Liverpool, two sides that endured tricky starts to their European campaigns, the Reds tottering after their first three games, and the Blues losing their coach after their home draw against Rosenborg on the first matchday. But it was almost inevitable that they would qualify, and once in the knock-out stages, you would have to be brave to bet against teams organized as well as these two are.
Liverpool sport better stats in the tournament this season, due largely to an emphatic 8-0 mauling of Beºiktaº. They also enjoy a better record in recent Champions League meetings between the two sides, with Jose Mourinho failing to find the the key to unlock Rafa's system. However, Avram Grant has not lost to Rafa BenÃtez in their two meetings this season, and another pair of draws cannot be ruled out.
But Who Are The Favourites?
On current form, one must believe that Manchester United and Liverpool have a slight edge over their opponents. The Reds were stuttering until a couple of months ago, but Rafa has suddenly found the magic formula just as his head was being readied for the chopping block. The Red Devils, meanwhile, have looked absolutely unbeatable since they scraped through against Lyon.
But if you look at the fixture list, Barcelona and Liverpool come out favourites, primarily because Chelsea and Manchester United play each other right in the middle of the two legs.
That could well affect the two title challengers, but they can take solace in another criterion, which actually makes them favourites to go through. They play the all-important second leg at home and Champions League history reveals that they have a massive 80%+ chance of going through. As if to prove the point, all four of these teams played the second leg at home in the quarter-finals!
To sum up, depending on the criterion you choose to look at, you get a different set of favourites – just the way it should be, in fact.
I would be reluctant to put my money on any of the four, but with a gun to my head I would probably say that Liverpool and Manchester United remain favourites, albeit for opposite reasons. Liverpool seem to have found the cutting edge, the ability to create magic up front, something that could be decisive in light of two rugged defenses. Manchester United, meanwhile, have a much stronger back line, again a potentially decisive difference between two attacking sides. But then again, all it will take is a moment of genius from Drogba or Messi to put all punditry to shame. Strap on your seat-belts.
